The threat for severe weather in southern Minnesota late Saturday into the the overnight hours has increased, and storms will be capable of producing straight-line winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
"Severe thunderstorms possible tonight. Strong winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Have a way to receive warning," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities.
Areas shaded in orange in the map above are in an enhanced risk for severe storms. The yellow shading represents a slight risk and locations within in the dark green shading have a marginal risk to get severe weather.
The forecast discussion from the NWS in the Twin Cities essentially explains that ingredients for the late-night severe weather setup have come together, making the storm system "stronger than previously expected."
It's possible that storms fire Saturday afternoon in southern Minnesota, but the main event is expected to be a line of strong to severe storms that develops in South Dakota and races east into Minnesota.
"Strong cold pool development along these line segments looks more likely, which would lead to an increased wind threat as the line segments move from west to east across southern MN, including the metro, late tonight and through the overnight hours," the forecast discussion says.
Here's the simulated future radar from the NAM 3KM computer model (GIF might not load in all browsers) from 3 p.m. Saturday through 11 a.m. Sunday.