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Severe weather threat lower Tuesday, ramps up again Wednesday in Minnesota

Storms are forecast to stay south of the metro Tuesday.

After two days of oppressive heat and humidity, things "cool" down a bit Tuesday as highs will stay in the 80s with heat index values only rising into the low-to-mid 90s. 

Storm chances, however, return for a third consecutive day, although areas from Fairmont to Owatonna and southward will have the best chance to see storms Tuesday, with another complex potentially impacting western Minnesota overnight into Wednesday morning. 

If you live in the Twin Cities, there's a good chance you'll stay dry Tuesday. 

Regardless of what evolves, the severe threat on Wednesday is higher than it is Tuesday. 

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Southern Minnesota is under a marginal risk Tuesday while there's already a slight risk in place for southern Minnesota on Wednesday. 

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"The best chance for thunderstorms today will be south of the Minnesota River Valley. A few strong storms are possible, mainly this afternoon and evening, with hail and strong wind gusts possible," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. 

"A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally excessive rainfall is also a concern."

The 7 p.m. run of the NAM 3KM model shows isolated storms firing near the Minnesota-Iowa border Tuesday afternoon, then a more potent line of storms blasting through southern Minnesota late Wednesday night. 

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However, the 1 a.m. run of the same model keeps Wednesday's storms further south, primarily in northern Iowa. Regardless, explosive storms are expected at some point Wednesday night and the severity of the storms will have to be monitored. 

Bookmark the Weather MN blog for updates on what you can expect

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