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There remains uncertainty over the snow and ice storm making its way to towards the Upper Midwest midweek, but it's still looking likely that the system will have some sort of impact on Minnesota.

Two shortwave systems will move out of the Rocky Mountains and make its way northeast, eventually merging as it hits the Upper Midwest by Wednesday/Thursday.

At this time, the National Weather Service acknowledges there remains great deal of uncertainty over where the system will hit the hardest, with the current projections showing that northwestern Wisconsin is set to see the worst of it.

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But Minnesota – and the Twin Cities – is very much in the target zone too, with the system first seeing temperatures drop and freezing rain starting to fall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

The NWS' forecast discussion says the main concern for freezing rain will be north of I-94 and east of I-35, with current projections showing a 70-90% chance of more than 0.01" of freezing rain in east-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, though the chance of more than 0.05" is less than 50%.

"The greater potential of minor or moderate impacts of ice accumulation will occur across northern and eastern Wisconsin."

But the second wave of the system is expected to bring "a line of severe storms" across the Midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday night – which in turn will bring some snow.

The NWS acknowledges that "confidence on where a band of measurable snowfall will develop once colder air arrives is low," but that for now all it can say is that "eastern Mn/western Wi has the best probability of receiving a few inches of snow late Wednesday night, and into Thursday."

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The NWS says at this stage, Minnesotans living in areas hit by the storm should only expect minor impacts – inconveniences – rather than major ones.

More is expected to be known in the coming days as the system comes in from the Pacific, enters the Rockies, and begins to interact with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

A quick look at medium-range models shows plenty of variation and uncertainty, with the American model predicting 2-3 inches in the Twin Cities and around 10 inches or more for the North Shore, while the Canadian has the Twin Cities getting hit harder, and the Euro has the Twin Cities barely getting hit at all.


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