A storm system that just 24 hours ago had the National Weather Service thinking that it could deliver couple of inches to the Twin Cities and higher amounts in and around Rochester has sagged south, and that means forecasted snow totals have been lowered for all areas of Minnesota.
Instead, snow and light freezing rain is in the cards for parts of south-central and southeastern Minnesota Monday morning and afternoon before things quiet down this evening.
The Twin Cities could miss most of the action, although it should be noted that the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service mentions in the forecast discussion that shifting model trends have created a situation where "confidence in overall snow band placement remains low."
That said, they're forecasting less than an inch of snow for the metro, 1-2 inches from Mankato to Faribault and Red Wing, with slightly higher amounts farther to the southeast.
Timing of freezing rain and snow, per the winter weather advisory that is in effect Monday:
"Light precipitation will begin to develop early Monday morning along the Iowa border and spread northeast across Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin by the afternoon. Some freezing rain is possible during the morning. The freezing precipitation will mix with snow by late morning, and then should transition to mainly snow in the afternoon. The snow will end early this evening."
Here's a better look at where the heaviest snow is expected to fall along and south of the Minnesota-Iowa border.
The HRRR model's radar simulation shows most of the snow completely missing the Twin Cities.
But as the NWS mentioned in the forecast discussion, if some of the overnight model trends verify, snow could be further north, as shown here in one of the NAM model runs.
Beyond Monday, the rest of the week looks quite cold Tuesda-Thursday before a balmy Friday-Sunday arrives with temps possibly above freezing.