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Snow to start in the metro, then rain: 12+ inches of heavy, wet snow possible in Minnesota

The latest on how much snow will fall across Minnesota.
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The winter storm we've been previewing for the last week will arrive in Minnesota today, bringing with it heavy snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain and winds that will make travel very difficult across parts of the state. 

According to the National Weather Service, computer models continue to focus the heaviest snow across western, central and northeast Minnesota where more than a foot could accumulate by the time the storm exits the region on Friday night. Here's a broad outlook for how much snow fall. 

Screen Shot 2018-12-26 at 8.47.13 AM

If you live west/north of a line from Granite Falls to Litchfield to Cambridge you're in for almost all snow, thus the higher expected totals. If you live east of that line in places like the Twin Cities, Hutchinson, Mankato and Red Wing, the snow is expected to change over to rain, thus the lower totals. 

Snow is expected work into southwest Minnesota around midday and by this evening it'll be into the Twin Cities. The metro area could see 3-6 inches of snow before it changes over to rain, at which point the rain will likely wash away quite a bit of it. Because of that, the metro area has been placed in a winter weather advisory. 

Areas expected to get the heavy snow are in a winter storm warning, where 7-12 inches is expected, with pockets of higher totals where the heavier bands develop. 

Here's another map from the National Weather Service with more city-specific snowfall totals. 

snowfall

A slight shift to the south and east of this storm's track could bring heavier snow totals to the Twin Cities, but at this point there's a slim chance of that happening. But it's the weather, so you really never know. 

Here's a look at one computer model's simulated future radar from 12 p.m. Wednesday through 7 p.m. Friday. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh5-60

And here's how likely it is for any given area to receive at last six inches of snow. Clearly, this storm system has it's bullseye on the heart of Minnesota, with Willmar, Alexandria, Brainerd, St. Cloud, Grand Rapids and Duluth getting nailed. There's just under a 30 percent chance of that much snow in the metro area. 

snowProbGE06_Minnesota

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