The meteorological set-up for Tuesday in southern Minnesota looks to be favorable for possible significant severe weather, with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) already placing the southern third of the state, including the Twin Cities, in an enhanced risk for severe storms.
There are six levels of risk the SPC uses:
- 0 - General thunderstorms
- 1 - Marginal risk
- 2 - Slight risk
- 3 - Enhanced risk
- 4 - Moderate risk
- 5 - High risk
"Severe Thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds," says the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service (NWS).
The SPC expects supercell storms capable of producing hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter to develop in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota by the mid/late afternoon. The storms are then expected to congeal into a line that races east-southeast along the warm front across southern Minnesota.
The best chance for severe weather is south of Interstate 94, though the position of the warm front on Tuesday afternoon will ultimately determine where the storms are found.
The models are still a bit inconsistent with placement at this point, as evidenced by the NAM model placing the storms closer to the Minnesota-Iowa border while the European and American models have the storms further north towards the Twin Cities.
We will have more intensive coverage with Tom Novak of Novak Weather, as he'll have a video briefing for what's happening by mid-afternoon today.