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Still watching storm track for Friday-Saturday, though models going south

The storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean.

The sun finally shined a little bit in eastern Minnesota Tuesday and temps will likely be rising into the upper 40s and even the low 50s in parts of the state on Wednesday, but what about the winter storm chances later this week?

If you like snow, this is not good news for you. 

While the storm track is yet to be determined, the system that the National Weather service said Monday "may bring accumulating snow to portions of the Upper Midwest Friday through Saturday" appears to be trending south of Minnesota.

But can we all trust the models with a storm that even now is still three days away?

"Well, remember what guidances showed a mere 24 to 48 hours ago. Quite frankly, solutions are all over the place. We need to wait for energy to come ashore over the next 48 hrs. before getting too excited," Novak Weather tweeted Tuesday morning. 

Forty-eight hours ago there were multiple computer models projecting the storm to impact much of Minnesota. The European model has remained the one consistent model keeping the heaviest precipitation south and east of Minnesota. Now the majority of the models are following suit. 

Here's Novak Weather's latest video briefing about the storm potential. 

"No need to totally jump off the boat just yet. This is likely going to be a large storm somewhere in the Midwest MN/IA/WI," Novak Weather tweeted. 

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities isn't hopeful about a storm hitting the Twin Cities area: "This is a highly complex set up in a split-flow pattern that should deliver a winter storm for someone, just not for us," the forecast discussion on Tuesday afternoon reads. 

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard says "the models are definitely trending to the south," noting that "a lot can happen" between now and Friday. Sundgaard also hinted in his video briefing that a separate chance for snow MIGHT be possible in Minnesota early next week. 

Will most of Minnesota have a white Christmas?

"Our big chance is this next snowstorm and maybe there's another one waiting in the wings behind it. I would say the chance of a statewide white Christmas is pretty low right now. We just don't have enough cold air in place," said climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld on the latest episode of the Way Over Our Heads podcas

Historically, there is about a 75-80% chance of a white Christmas in the Twin Cities.

Blumenfeld cautions that the technical definition of a white Christmas, which is one inch of snow at an official measuring station, may not match our personal expectations or reflect the amount of snow in our neighborhoods. 

“Actually, in the last several years there’s been a couple of times where we kind of got saved by the bell, but I don’t think that’s what Bing Crosby meant,” said Blumenfeld.

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