Storms are expected to bubble up later Saturday and pose a risk of producing large hail and damaging winds, basically along and east of a line from Mankato to the Twin Cities, in addition to a healthy chunk of north-central Iowa.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has elevated the threat from marginal (level 1 of 5) to slight (level 2 of 5) on the severe scale. But as the SPC is talking severe storms, the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service isn't hyping the threat.
"This activity looks to be primarily elevated and not particularity strong, just some good soaking overnight summer storms," the NWS Twin Cities said.
Here's how the HRRR model has the future radar playing out Saturday into Sunday morning. If this verifies, it would mean some scattered showers possible Saturday afternoon before a line of strong to severe storms pushes through south-central and southeast Minnesota in the 6-10 p.m. window.
There's no doubt that people at the State Fair Saturday night might have to dodge a storm, though it could also miss entirely. As always seems to be the case, the Twin Cities is on the edge of everything.
Take a look at the wind gust swath graphic, which shows what the HRRR model is thinking in terms of thunderstorm winds. It shows potential for 40-60 mph gusts with the Saturday night line of storms. Again, this is not a sure thing to happen. It's just what one model is currently projecting as a possibility.
Another severe threat arrives Sunday afternoon and evening, and this is one the NWS Twin Cities appears to be more focused on: "Basically, this looks to be a pretty classic summer severe weather setup for the Upper MS Valley," the forecast discussion from the NWS Twin Cities reads.
The SPC expects storms to fire in western Minnesota by late afternoon and then move east with an associated isolated damaging wind threat.
Here's how the NAM 3KM model has the radar shaking out from 2 p.m. Sunday to 4 a.m. Monday.