4 P.M. UPDATE
The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 12 a.m. Monday. More details here via the Weather MN blog.
Temps will rise to around 90 degrees in the Twin Cities and surrounding areas Sunday afternoon, and the tropical humidity in place will lead to a favorable environment for explosive thunderstorm development late Sunday into the overnight hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Oklahoma has placed the northern two-thirds of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, in a slight risk for severe storms.
As the National Weather Service (NWS) in the Twin Cities notes, computer model guidance is all over the place and having a difficult time pinning down what's going to happen. For example, the NAM 3KM model run Sunday morning shows (GIF may not load in all browsers) clusters of storms firing over central Minnesota and then moving east-southeast into Monday morning.
The 8 a.m. run of the HRRR model shows storms firing in the eastern Dakotas and spreading eastward into Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening. There's also a chance storms move over the same areas repeatedly, which could lead to high rainfall totals and flooding.
At this point, anything is possible and storms that reach severe levels will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. The bottom line is that the air is juicy and storms will undoubtedly fire up, so be prepared for possible watches and warnings.
Before the storms the heat will be on as temps rise to around 90 degrees. With high humidity, including tropical dewpoints in the 70s, it's going to be sticky outside. Because of that, the weather service has placed the 7-county metro area in a heat advisory through Monday night.
The rest of the week, Tuesday through Friday, features more heat, humidity and storm chances. Check back to the Weather MN blog and bookmark it for easy updates.