It might be a rocky evening in southern Minnesota, including possibly in the Twin Cities, as storms will be capable of going severe amid very hot and humid conditions.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the area under the gun to now include the Twin Cities metro area, saying all severe hazards – tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds – will be possible if storms can get going this afternoon or evening.
Tom Novak of Novak Weather has his eye on the situation, as he believes storms will fire over much of southern Minnesota over the afternoon and evening hours.
At a minimum, an "isolated severe wind/hail risk should persist into the early overnight across parts of IA and southern MN," according to the SPC.
Novak Weather's area of greatest risk is similar to the one issued by the SPC.
According to the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service, if storms develop this afternoon or evening – possibly between 4-7 p.m. – they could pose a risk of dropping a tornado, though the more likely severe mode would be storms producing large hail and damaging winds late this evening into the overnight hours.
Hail could be the size of tennis balls with storms that fire in south-central Minnesota and northern Iowa.
Here's the 8 a.m. radio simulation from the HRRR computer model, which indicates the possibility of a cluster of storms moving through the metro area by dinner time, with more robust development along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota later on.
What's more is that there could be significant rainfall with storms that train over the same areas, with the weather service noting that some computer models are suggesting totals of 3-4 inches in isolated locations anywhere from northern Iowa through southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.