Severe weather in October isn't all that common in Minnesota, but it does happen and it very well could happen in parts of the state Sunday afternoon and evening.
According to the National Weather Service, a line of storms is forecast to develop in the eastern Dakotas or western Minnesota and move eastward through the night. The best chance for isolated damaging winds and perhaps even some rogue hail reports is in western parts of Minnesota, as is outlined in the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
"Greatest threat with this initial activity will be hail/wind, evolving into more of a wind threat as the squall line matures," says the SPC.
The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service is less bullish on the severe storm chances, noting that cloud bases could be several thousand feet off the ground, making the severe threat potentially difficult to be realized. However, it expects storms to be capable of producing "sporadic damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail."
The HRRR radar simulation hints at storms erupting near the Minnesota-Dakotas border during the late afternoon and rapidly growing into a line of storms that marches east across the state.