Heavy showers and thunderstorms are winding down in southeast Minnesota but another round of storms is likely to develop Thursday afternoon.
The storms that redevelop will present a chance for severe hazards, including large hail, high winds and possible tornadoes. It may not feel like a hot and humid day typically associated with severe weather, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) says conditions will be favorable for some nasty storms.
The storms that stand the best chance to produce tornadoes are the cells that remain isolated. The weather service refers to those supercells as "discrete convection" that has the greatest potential to produce tornadoes and large hail, in addition to localized severe wind gusts.
The 8 a.m. outlook from the SPC puts southeast Minnesota in the better zone for severe storms, with the Twin Cities in a marginal risk.
Here's where the tornado threat will be highest (red shaded area). But anywhere in or around the green- and red-shaded areas could get a rogue tornado today.
As the SPC points out, locations to the southeast of the low pressure system moving through the region will have better winds to produce tornadoes. The latest HRRR model from 9 a.m. has the Twin Cities and points south/east in that zone, and the simulated radar shows (GIF may not load in all browsers) some robust redevelopment in those areas this afternoon.
The NAM 3KM computer model keeps the low pressure center just south of the metro, which falls in better line with what the SPC's tornado outlooks suggests in keep the strongest storms south of the Twin Cities.
Regardless, storms could get a bit nasty mid-afternoon in southern Minnesota.