Rain will move into Minnesota on Monday and spend about 48 hours in the region before things dry up later Wednesday, and there could be a narrow band of accumulating snow on the backside of the storm system.
"Most locations will see around a half inch to an inch, with lesser amounts across western Minnesota, and higher amounts in western Wisconsin," the National Weather Service says about rain amounts. "Rain will change over to snow as the system departs with a light slushy accumulation possible."
While eastern Minnesota is likely to only end up with a slushy accumulation, if any snow, there could be a north-south corridor further to the west that gets in on a few inches of heavy, wet snow.
"A transition to snow is expected late Tuesday, with a slushy accumulation of snow possible Tuesday night into Wednesday," the NWS says. "There is a potential for a few inches of a slushy snow accumulation on the west edge of the precip shield."
As of now, the best chance for a few inches of slushy snow is along a north-south gradient between Alexandria and St. Cloud. But the NWS says details will become more precise the closer we get to Tuesday night, when the rain will transition to snow.
Up north, there are winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings in effect.
The National Weather Service in Duluth is forecasting up to a foot of snow along the North Shore, with lesser amounts further west. Icing could also be an issue in the Northland.
But as you'll see in the models below, the NWS forecast is a lot lower than what the models are pushing out. The models are suggesting higher amounts in the 6-10 inch range in northern Minnesota, with a north-south oriented tail of accumulating snow further to the south.
The tail of snow, if you will, shows anything from 1-3 inches from the European and Canadian models, to up to 8 inches from the American model, which appears to be an outlier with how aggressive it is. The NWS is NOT forecasting these amounts.
We'll have more from meteorologist Sven Sundgaard and Tom Novak later today.