Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to push through the Twin Cities and the southern half of Minnesota Monday afternoon through the early overnight hours, with some storms capable of reaching severe levels.
The slight risk area for severe storms is just south of the Twin Cities, though severe weather can't be ruled out in the metro area. The best chance for severe storms is late Monday night, when the lower-level jet stream intensifies, providing a little more fuel for the storms.
Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard doesn't believe the severe threat to be too impressive.
"Decent rain moving in this evening/overnight with the chance of some strong storms in southern MN (doesn’t look very impressive to me," says Sundgaard. "Another shot of rain/thunder comes in Thursday/Friday."
The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities says the severe threat will be greatest along the I-90 corridor, where storms could produce gust winds, hail and a brief tornado or two.
Significant rain totals are more likely than severe weather, which will continue to help the southern half of Minnesota to put a dent in the drought. Sundgaard expects about a half inch to an inch or more across the southern half of the state.
The NWS Twin Cities, however, does make note in its forecast discussion that hi-resolution models are hinting at localized pockets of 2-4 inches, with the greatest threat for those higher amounts in and round the northwest Twin Cities metro area.
The most impactful storms will push through the Twin Cities and areas to the south after 7 p.m. Monday.