Strong storms possible in Minnesota Thursday, Friday

The better severe threat may be Friday, according to forecasters.
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storms, lightning

There's no indication that storms Thursday and Friday will be as violent as the pair of derechos (long-lived lines of severe storms) that ripped through Minnesota and Wisconsin last Friday and Saturday, but some storms could certainly be severe. 

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center has a healthy slice of Minnesota in a slight risk for severe weather Thursday night, with the risk area shifting slightly east to include the Twin Cities metro and parts of southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Friday. 

Here's Thursday's risk zone, which could change in future outlooks. 

spc noaa july 25

According to the SPC, isolated storms are expected to develop late afternoon or evening Wednesday and then move east-southeast. They could remain strong to severe before weakening during the overnight hours. 

You can see in the simulated future radar from the NAM 3KM model below (GIF may not load in all browsers) that things are isolated to scattered at best, so nothing like the nasty lines of storms that caused significant damage in the Upper Midwest last weekend. 

That said, any single storm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh30-50

"Overall, not too impressed with the severe threat," says National Weather Service in the Twin Cities in its Wednesday morning forecast discussion

The NWS Twin Cities then adds that "perhaps a better severe threat will develop Friday." 

Currently, the areas at risk for severe storms Friday are outlined in the darker green, marginal risk zone in the map below. We'll have more details in the Weather MN blog Thursday morning. 

Screen Shot 2019-07-24 at 9.04.20 AM

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