Summer outlook for Minnesota gets differing forecasts from 2 major weather outlets

Regardless, it's not winter so it's a win for Minnesota.
Publish date:

In an Old Farmers' Almanac vs. Farmer's Almanac-like battle, the summer temperature forecast for Minnesota is portrayed differently by The Weather Channel and the National Weather Service. 

In today's Weather MN blog, brought to you by Pet Evolution, we're looking at the differences that can be summed by by saying one expects a cooler summer while the other predicts a relatively standard season. 

The Weather Channel expects cooler than normal temps

"El Niño summers suggest cooler risks across the northern/central Plains with warmth favored across the Pacific Northwest," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

He says there's a lot of soil moisture in the Upper Midwest, which can have a cooling effect. 

The Weather Channel breaks its temperature trend predictions into categories: 

  • Near or slightly below average
  • Below average
  • Near or slightly above average
  • Above average

They've got all of Minnesota in for a below average June and July, followed by a near or slightly below average August. 

In Minneapolis, the average high temps in June, July and August are 79 degrees, 83 degrees and 80 degrees, respectively. Anything below those averages would lend a hand to a "below average" forecast being accurate. So it's not like it's going to be cold. It might actually be even more tolerable than normal. 

Sign up: Subscribe to our BREAKING WEATHER newsletters

The National Weather Service

On the flip side, the NWS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) aren't as confident in cooler temperatures. Here's a map showing equal chances for above or below normal temperatures throughout Minnesota for May, June and July. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-19 at 7.04.32 AM

The same goes for the three-month, long-range temperature forecast for June, July and August. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-19 at 7.39.57 AM

"EC" on the map essentially means there is an equal 33.3% chance of having normal, below normal or above normal temperatures. 

What about precipitation?

Similar to the temperature outlook, NOAA is forecasting equal chances for normal, below normal or above normal precipitation in May, June and July for most of Minnesota. The exception, as you can see in the map below, is far southwest Minnesota, where slightly above normal precipitation is forecast. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-19 at 7.05.29 AM

Southwest Minnesota is fresh off one of its snowiest winters on record, with Marshall racking up an all-time record of more than 88 inches. 

Meanwhile, the long term can take a hike because temps Friday will be in the 60s statewide with bountiful sunshine, with temps soaring into the 70s on Saturday with more much-needed Vitamin D from the sun. 

Sunday looks like there could be a shower or thunderstorm late in the day, but otherwise another nice day. The NWS Twin Cities says temps could soar into the mid-to-upper 70s on Sunday from southern Minnesota up through eastern parts of the state if cloud cover ahead of an approaching front stays sparse. 

Next Up


Winter storm watch issued where snow could exceed 6 inches in MN

Snow will spread from west to east starting Saturday morning in western Minnesota.


President Biden signs more COVID executive orders: here's what they are

The new president has set a target of administering 100 million doses in 100 days.

police tape, crime scene

1 dead in stabbing, another dies in separate shooting in Minneapolis

One person has been arrested in connection to the shooting.

Gary Kubiak

Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak announces retirement

Kubiak wraps up a career that has spanned nearly four decades.


Minneapolis police seeks public help finding missing woman

A 63-year-old woman has been missing since Tuesday

coronavirus testing

Don't want to talk to a contact tracer? MN debuts online option after positive test

The department says the survey will allow its staff to keep track of more cases at a faster pace

Family Dollar

Money Gal Coaching: 12 things you are wasting your money on

Kelly Blodgett started Money Gal Coaching after paying down nearly $50K in debt in 18 months.

police lights

Three teens charged in Minneapolis robberies

The incidents took place on Saturday in Minneapolis.

covid-19, coronavirus, ppe

Here is Minnesota's COVID-19 update for Thursday, January 21

It's the first time in exactly four months that Minnesota has had fewer than 100 COVID patients in intensive care.

icy roads, bad roads

Girl, 16, killed in crash with semi on icy Minnesota road

The crash happened in Dodge County around 8 a.m. Wednesday.


Screen Shot 2019-05-23 at 10.30.18 AM

Summer blues mean MN could stay stuck in cool pattern

The blue colors on long-range weather maps mean cooler temps are expected.

More snow Tuesday, March forecast offers no winter relief

It's been 118 days since the Twin Cities hit 50 degrees.

Streak of nearly 5 months without 50 degrees ends this week

It hasn't been 50 degree in the metro since Nov. 1, 2018.

snow, brown grass, white Christmas

About Minnesota's chances of a statewide white Christmas...

More snow in October than December? It appears so.