The only day in Minnesota so far this year with severe thunderstorm warnings was April 7, but that could change Sunday afternoon and evening.
Round one of Sunday's storms features a line of activity moving through southern Minnesota. It will bring heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds as it moves across the state, likely exiting and dissipating as it works its way east toward Wisconsin.
The second round of storms could be strong to severe, but it's really all dependent on how much sunshine there is to destabilize the atmosphere, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
"Later this afternoon and evening, a few storms could develop and these have the potential to be severe. The main threat is large hail. Stay tuned to the forecast, especially if you have plans outdoors," the Twin Cities office of the NWS said.
However, the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center – issued just before 8 a.m. – has removed south-central Minnesota from a slight risk and dropped the area into a marginal risk for stronger storms.
"This is not a major tornado outbreak or a really dangerous severe weather outbreak, just kind of strong thunderstorms and a few of them might pack a punch, drop some hail over an inch in diameter or have wind gusts in excess of 60 mph," says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld on the latest Way Over Our Heads podcast.
The HRRR model shows the line of storms this morning rapidly weakening as they approach the Twin Cities, with storms firing up in southeast Minnesota again after dinner. This is one model, but it gives you a good idea of what could unfold – and it also shows that Sunday will not be a washout for most.