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Sven Sundgaard updates dynamic Saturday storm that will hit Minnesota

Keep tabs on the latest details because things could still change.

Rain. Freezing rain. Sleet. Snow. Lightning. Thunder. It's all going to happen in Minnesota on Friday night and Saturday. It's just a matter of who gets what, and how much falls. 

Here's a radar simulation from the HRRR model, which gives a pretty fair look at what could happen beginning late Friday night with the first wave of moisture in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, followed by a lull Saturday morning before the main event unfolds Saturday afternoon. 

Areas with the purple and pink colors are in the zone of uncertainty, but a bit of everything could fall from the sky. 

Areas with the purple and pink colors are in the zone of uncertainty, but a bit of everything could fall from the sky. 

Accumulating snow will be possible on a southwest to northeast axis, most likely to the west and north of the Twin Cities. It could wind up being warm enough in the metro keep things mostly rain for it changes over to a wintry mix or snow Saturday night. 

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But Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard thinks the freezing rain Saturday should stay mostly north and west of the Twin Cities, but any minor change in the storm track or temperatures could lead to more icing in the metro, so everything is on the table. 

As far as snow totals go, everywhere south and east of St. Cloud show wind up with an inch or less, according to the National Weather Service. But again, as Sven points out in his video, any shift could bring higher amounts into the north/west metro. 

"So during the day Saturday, it's going to be plain old rain, some thunder, a mix in central Minnesota. And then it turns to snow by late in the afternoon," says Sven. "

"All the models agree on this very narrow area of snowfall, but the European model continues to be a little further southeast, putting some of the metro on the edge of some of those heavier totals," Sven added. 

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"We're still talking only three or four inches, but it's not out of the question yet that we do see maybe some suburbs, northern and western suburbs, get in on some of those three inch amounts. But primarily it does look to be southwestern Minnesota, west-central Minnesota and then cutting right through central and northeastern Minnesota."

Some locations could see up to 8 inches of snow, but those will be "pretty spotty," per Sven. 

Snow amounts the models are predicting

Canadian Model courtesy of WeatherBell

Canadian Model courtesy of WeatherBell

European model courtesy of WeatherBell

European model courtesy of WeatherBell

American model courtesy of WeatherBell

American model courtesy of WeatherBell

NAM model courtesy of WeatherBell

NAM model courtesy of WeatherBell

Severe weather threat

The best chance for severe storms is in Iowa, but far southeastern Minnesota can't rule out a strong or severe storm or two, which would most likely be capable of producing heavy rain, lightning and hail by the time they reach Minnesota. 

And tornadoes are also possible thanks to sufficient low-level sheer, according to the Storm Prediction Center. 

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"The main threats will be damaging winds, some large hail and a few tornadoes," says the NWS La Crosse, noting that the best chance for severe storms is south of Interstate 90. 

Here's the lightning simulation from the European model. Clearly, there will be some rumbling skies Saturday afternoon and evening. 

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-lightning_density_inst-1646395200-1646481600-1646568000-40

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