Temps surge into the 40s this weekend; when will quiet weather pattern end for Minnesota?

Snow lovers in the Twin Cities aren't getting a fair shake this winter.
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About a week ago I wrote a Weather MN blog about being stuck in a quiet weather pattern and how this winter has been void of all but one decent snowstorm in the Twin Cities. 

Other parts of the state have been hit harder by winter storms, and at the rate we're going this could end up being a year where "the big one" just doesn't happen in the metro. 

Now myth and science don't mix, but legend has it that the late-February and March high school sports tournaments have the power to draw in winter storms. Perhaps you've noticed: it's tournament season. 

This week's tournament festivities – the state wrestling matchups at the Xcel Energy Center Wednesday through Saturday – will be pretty much bone-dry. In fact, it'll be warm enough to get away with a spring jacket this weekend as temps soar into the 40s. 

"After a couple of more cool days today and Friday, we're back into mild air and afternoon thaws this weekend into next week," says the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.

OK. Fine. Boring enough weather-wise this week, but good for all the folks from greater Minnesota who have to make the drive to St. Paul to see their wrestlers compete. Snow lovers can't win 'em all. 

What about next week?

"The next week looks to continue our run of quiet weather," said the NWS Twin Cities.

Dang. Now it looks like snow lovers are 0-for-2.  

Of course, predicting what will happen next week right now (Thursday) is not a sure thing. 

The weather service notes that all signs point to drier weather again next week, but the Canadian model is currently (and this could easily change over time) showing "a swath of heavy snow getting laid out across IA into southeast MN and northern WI" around the middle of next week.

Is this a sign of the power of tournament season?

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Again, the odds are against this happening because Minnesota is harnessed in what the weather service calls a "split-flow pattern," where the jet stream tends to keep most of the storm activity to our southeast. 

Then again, tournaments. 

The good ol' Canadian model just so happens to have the storm developing just in time for the start of next week's boys' hockey and girls' basketball state tournaments. 

Coincidence? Probably. But maybe not?

So far this winter, MSP Airport has recorded 42.9 inches of snow. The average winter produces about 54 inches in the Twin Cities, so another 10 inches or so is needed to get there.

Meanwhile, enjoy another weekend that'll be perfect for t-shirts, shorts and grilling. 

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