I'm telling you, this has been as weird of a snowfall forecast as I've seen in a long time. Of course, we report what the National Weather Service says while having the ability ourselves to look at certain computer models they use.
One such computer model is the HRRR, which is a high-resolution model that tends to be fairly accurate for near-term forecasting. The latest HRRR model run says the north metro could pick up 3-5 inches while the south metro could get anywhere from 5-8 more inches of snow through midnight.
This is wild considering the NWS dropped expected snow totals to the metro to 1-2 inches early today, but those numbers are clearly on the rise as many metro locations already have 2-3 inches on the ground.
"The heaviest snow totals, which looked to be down around Rochester early today, has shifted to the north, putting the south metro closer to the higher totals," says severe weather specialist Tim Purington.
"The heaviest snow should remain just south of the inner loop of the Twin Cities, so places like Northfield, Lakeville, Hastings and Red Wing could wind up with 8+ inches of snow by the time this storm is all said and done late tonight."
Purington says Minneapolis and St. Paul could still get another 3-5 inches, with less to the north and more to the south.
Here's the simulated future radar from 3 p.m. through about midnight.
This is astonishing considering the official forecast from the National Weather Service has bounced all over the place over the last 24 hours, going from a 4- to- 6-inch prediction on Monday evening to 3-4 inches this morning and then a mid-morning update that said most of the metro should only anticipate an inch or two.
Snowfall is extremely hard to predict, and the low-pressure system bringing the snow took an unexpected turn to the north today.