The severe threat Monday in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin appears to be increasing as the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in an enhanced risk for severe storms.
The SPC says large hail, damaging winds and "a few tornadoes" are possible. The area where the nastiest storms could fire – these would be capable of dumping very large hail and producing tornadoes – is within the enhanced risk zone.
"Highest probabilities for supercells appears to be confined to a fairly limited spatial area centered over the southern MN/west-central WI border vicinity," says the SPC.
Tornadoes will be possible all the way up into the Duluth area and all the way south into northeast Iowa, but highest chance for a tornado is within the yellow shaded area in the map below.
The greatest hail risk, including potential for hail the size of baseballs, is within the black outlined area with dashed lines. That includes the Twin Cities, Rochester and Eau Claire.
The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service will be releasing an extra weather balloon at 3 p.m., which should help tell a better picture of what could happen this afternoon and evening.
Here's the simulated future radar from the HRRR model, which shows a supercell firing northwest of the Twin Cities around 4 p.m. and blasting through the Cambridge area before more storms fire to the south and east of the Twin Cities later this evening. This is one model, and it only represents what might happen, so stay weather aware through the day.
Earlier Monday, severe storms blasted through Minnesota and dumped significant hail from the South Dakota border, through Willmar and all the way through the northern Twin Cities metro area before moving into Wisconsin.