While thundershowers are expected to remain below severe levels Thursday, Sunday could be a different story as the National Weather Service is already alerting the public to the potential of severe storms in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.
What's going to happen today?
Today is all about luck of the draw as scattered thunderstorms will pop up across central and southern Minnesota. Where they develop, they will be capable of frequent lightning and heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding.
"Spotty tropical-like thundershowers today & tomorrow," says Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. "They’ll be slow moving since winds aloft are under 10 mph. There’ll be isolated patches of heavy rainfall amounts as a result."
Here's how things could unfold, according to the HRRR model, which shows thundershowers flaring up in random areas pretty much anywhere from around Brainerd all the way to the Iowa border.
Sunday severe threat in Minnesota
According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), "robust thunderstorms" are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front in the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota on Sunday.
Conditions will be favorable for all severe threats, including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes, though the SPC says supercells that initiate will eventually form a bowing cluster of storms that could increase the threat for damaging winds.
The SPC's Day 4 severe weather outlook covers pretty much the entire state, though a more refined view should come into focus over the next few days.
"There is still much uncertainty on the exact timing/placement of strongest severe threat," the NWS Twin Cities said Thursday, echoing the SPC's message about all severe hazards being possible.