Winter storm warnings have been issued across southern Minnesota and most of the Twin Cities are included in the warning, with some parts of the state in line to get slammed by a foot of snow on Friday.
The warning includes Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Scott, Carver and Dakota counties in the Twin Cities metro, but Anoka County is not included. Five to 10 inches of snow is expected in the metro area, with higher amounts possible just south.
"We have upgraded a portion of the winter storm watch to a warning for Friday and Friday night. This means we are 80%+ confident that heavy snow will fall in the warning area. Snow totals in the warning (pink) look to be in the 6 to 12" range by sunrise Saturday," says the National Weather Service.
From the National Weather Service:
"A winter storm warning has been issued for southern Minnesota and parts of west central Wisconsin. Heavy snow of 6 to 8 inches is expected across much of this area. There will be bands of heavy snow within the warned area where snow totals could be as high as 12 inches. In addition there will be some blowing snow further reducing visibility down along parts of the I-90 corridor."
Southwestern Minnesota will also be under the gun for heavy snow.
Snowfall rates will be intense, along the lines of 1-2 inches per hour, on Friday evening and night. The weather service expects travel conditions from 5-11 p.m. to "paralyzing."
Take a look at what the models are showing. You see that the American and Canadian models have the Twin Cities getting hit hard, but the NAM, European and HRRR models suggest a totally different story with just a few inches in the metro. It really does appear that it's going to be a close call.
Below is what the national blend of models shows for snowfall totals. But the problem with this map is that it is based on a snow to liquid ratio of 10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid, and the weather service is expecting the ratio to be more like 13 or 14 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid. Thus, the totals on this map would be undercutting actual totals if it turned out to be the case.