We all know that the weather does what it wants, and that means the forecast from the National Weather Service is an ever-changing process.
Take for example the rogue tornado that spun up near Redwood Falls and Wabasso in southwest Minnesota on Thursday. Nobody saw that storm coming.
In fact, the weather service was thinking general rain and t-storms would move through Minnesota on Thursday, with the severe threat coming on Friday in western and southern parts of the state.
The Friday severe threat? It's mostly gone.
The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has dropped all of Minnesota from the slight risk, with only a corner of southeast Minnesota in a marginal risk for storms capable of producing hail.
The severe threat instead has shifted to the eastern Dakotas, just west of the Minnesota border, where a slight risk remains in place.
It's entirely possible that storms that develop in the Dakotas produce severe warnings in western Minnesota, but the overall threat for nasty storms in Minnesota has diminished significantly because of early morning rain in Iowa and the expectation for continued cloud cover.
Then again, the weather service wasn't forecasting the impressive tornado that ripped through Redwood County on Thursday, so it'd be wise to pay attention to the skies.
Here's the simulated future radar (may not load in all browsers), showing morning convection in southern Minnesota dissipating, possibly before it reaches the metro.
More rain is in the forecast for Saturday, but the weather service isn't calling for a total washout. Strong storms are possible in southern Minnesota, but those details won't be refined until Saturday morning.
As of now, the SPC has the Twin Cities and areas to the south in a marginal risk for severe storms.
Next week gets interesting as summer heat arrives with highs Tuesday through the weekend soaring into the 80s and 90s, with bouts of strong storms possible in what's expected to be an active pattern.