What's it going to be, Old Man Winter?
Only the cold-blooded personification of winter knows, but that doesn't stop meteorologists from attempting to decipher the signs and predict what's in the winter pipeline.
The latest attempt comes from AccuWeather, which calls the winter 2022-23 forecast "one of the most complicated and dynamic in recent memory" due to the "triple dip" La Nina, a phenomenon that Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard detailed last month.
The snow outlook for Minnesota a 50-50 toss up for above or below normal, with the exception of the Iron Range and northeastern Minnesota, including Duluth, where AccuWeather is predicting 125-149% of normal snowfall.
The average annual snowfall in Duluth is 81 inches, so 25-49% more would mean an additional 20-40 inches. That's a big winter. Duluth has topped 100 inches 18 times in recorded history, most recently in 2019 when 129.7 inches piled up over the course of the cold season, ranking No. 4 all time for the city.
AccuWeather's range for the Twin Cities is 75-124% of normal, which means it could be below average or above average. Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches.
AccuWeather is suggesting warmer temperatures for December in Minnesota, in addition to "snowier periods" than normal December through February and a visit from the polar vortex in February.
The Twin Cities averages 11.5 inches in December, 12.1 in January and 7.8 in February, based on the 30-year modern average (1981-2010).
All in all, there's nothing striking about the prediction – and that falls in line with recent winter outlooks from the the National Weather Service, the Farmers' Almanac, and the Old Farmer's Almanac.