What are our chances of having a white Christmas?

Time to mentally prepare yourself for a lot of grey and brown colors?
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It's been pretty much bone-dry across Minnesota since the early December snowstorm dumped up to 11 inches of snow in southern parts of the state. 

Depressingly, if you're a snow lover, anyway, what little snow remains on the ground in Minnesota will be melting away over the coming days, and there's no sign of any plentiful snowstorms to come. 

We are talking about the weather, so things will probably change. But a grey/brown Christmas seems to be more likely than a white Christmas. 

Way Over Our Heads podcast: A brown Christmas? 5 memorable MN weather events

The National Weather Service says it considers it a white Christmas if there is an inch of snow or more on the ground at 6 a.m. on Dec. 25. 

"Right now, there is a snow depth of 4 inches at the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport," the NWS said in an email. "High temperatures for the Twin Cities metro are going to be above freezing tomorrow through the weekend, so we will lose a lot of our snowpack. 

"We do not have any major 'snow-makers' in the 7-day forecast for the Twin Cities. It is still too early to say whether or not we will have snow between December 20th-25th. So, we would say our chances for a White Christmas are 50-50 right now."

That's an optimistic answer from the experts, but just looking at the future radar simulation from the GFS model you can see a little blue on the map today, but then there's not a blip on the radar until next Wednesday and then dry as a desert again until Christmas. It's just one model, but it goes to show how boring the weather pattern is right now. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh6-384

The long-range forecast from the National Weather Service keeps at least the southern half of Minnesota in a below normal precipitation zone through Dec. 26. This might change, but it's just another sign that a grey/brown Christmas is looking very possible. 

Screen Shot 2018-12-13 at 9.06.42 AM

So where the heck is all of our snow? It's in Texas and the southern half of the country. 

Parts of central Texas are expecting three inches of snow and winds gusting to 55 mph Thursday and Friday, and some of those same areas just got hit with half a foot of snow last weekend. 

You know, it could be worse. In 1821, Dec. 13 marked the beginning of a brutal cold stretch in which high temps were below zero in the Twin Cities for all but one day during a 19-day period. 

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