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What kind of weather is in store for Minnesotans on Christmas?

Christmas is only a week away!

Snow threatened parts of the Upper Midwest on Halloween and Thanksgiving, but what's going to happen around the next major holiday, Christmas, next week?

At this point, warmer conditions are expected to last Thursday through Monday before a cold front brings temps back down to normal levels by Christmas Eve, according to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. 

Christmas Day is a week away and remains a mystery weather-wise, but the weather service says a couple of computer models are suggesting a chance for precipitation around Christmas Day into the latter half of next week. 

"A weak cold front coming through on Monday will knock our temperatures back slightly for the lead up to Christmas, but temperatures will remain well above normal. For the end of the forecast, the GFS/ECMWF agree on the idea that we'll start seeing energy head our way from the western trough, but there's still some significant timing differences. We left the 20s PoPs (20 percent chance of precipitation) in for Christmas, but confidence is pretty low in seeing anything at this point. In addition, we have the type as all snow for now, but given how warm we'll be next week, any system we see will have the potential to bring with a rain/snow mix or just plain rain."

The American model (GFS) is showing a chance of a system moving through around Christmas Day, with all modes of precipitation possible – rain, sleet, snow – depending on where you live in Minnesota. 

floop-gfs-2019121812.prateptype_cat.us_mw

The European model (ECMWF) also shows a little disturbance pushing through the region around the 25th and 26th. 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019121812.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw

The Canadian model indicates a presence of a similar system, but little to no precipitation associated with it. 

Regardless of what happens on Christmas Day and the days that follow, the weather looks awesome for people traveling between now and Christmas. Seriously, it's going to be fantastic with temps rising into the 30s, maybe even the low 40s for some, this weekend. 

Here's what the weather on Dec. 25 has brought to the Twin Cities this decade: 

  • 2018: 28 degrees, dry
  • 2017: 4 degrees, trace of snow
  • 2016: 37 degrees, 0.97 inches of rain
  • 2015: 30 degrees, dry
  • 2014: 35 degrees, trace of rain/snow
  • 2013: 28 degrees, 0.2 inches of snow
  • 2012: 13 degrees, dry
  • 2011: 42 degrees, dry
  • 2010: 20 degrees, trace of snow

It was actually 52 degrees for a high in the Twin Cities the day after Christmas in 2011. 

The last time is was snowy around Christmas was in 2009, when 9.2 inches of snow accumulated Dec. 23-25. 

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