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Where to be prepared for severe weather Saturday in Minnesota

Take a look at the latest radar simulations and lightning forecasts.

Severe storms remain in the forecast for Minnesota and Wisconsin on Saturday, with the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintain a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk across southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, and Wisconsin. 

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard lays out the picture really well in the video at the top of the story, but below is more for you to consume in regards to Saturday's storms. 

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Here's the HRRR model. It shows storms moving from Canada into northern Minnesota overnight before a complex of storms from the Dakotas makes its way across Minnesota, with this simulation showing it reaching the Twin Cities by midday. 

HRRR model simulated future radar

HRRR model simulated future radar

The NAM 3KM model has the line of storms a little further south, which in this simulation they narrowly miss the Twin Cities. 

NAM 3KM simulated future radar 

NAM 3KM simulated future radar 

The European model has a lightning flash rate simulation. It shows the morning/midday storms on a similar track as the NAM 3KM, though it also shows storms redeveloping along the cold front around 5 p.m. The white color indicates frequent lightning with intense storms. 

European model lightning simulation

European model lightning simulation

"Saturday is looking to have a good shot at seeing strong to severe storms, especially in eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin by the early afternoon to early evening. All hazard types are on the table, but large hail and strong winds are considered the primary threats," says the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. 

So it's pretty clear that most of the models are targeting southern Minnesota and western/southern Wisconsin. That's precisely where the SPC has that level 3 of 5 enhanced risk. 

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According to the SPC, supercells that develop before morphing into a line of storms will be "capable of very large hail and damaging gusts," in addition to tornadoes with storms that can maintain discrete storm mode. Once the storms merge into a bowing line segment, tornadoes will be less likely, but still possible. 

We'll certainly have the latest on the storm threat as new information is released by the National Weather Service, along with the newest updates from the computer models. 

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