Skip to main content

Where to be prepared for severe weather Saturday in Minnesota

Take a look at the latest radar simulations and lightning forecasts.

Severe storms remain in the forecast for Minnesota and Wisconsin on Saturday, with the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintain a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk across southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, and Wisconsin. 

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard lays out the picture really well in the video at the top of the story, but below is more for you to consume in regards to Saturday's storms. 

Weather is sponsored by All Energy Solar: get a free installation quote now!

Here's the HRRR model. It shows storms moving from Canada into northern Minnesota overnight before a complex of storms from the Dakotas makes its way across Minnesota, with this simulation showing it reaching the Twin Cities by midday. 

HRRR model simulated future radar

HRRR model simulated future radar

The NAM 3KM model has the line of storms a little further south, which in this simulation they narrowly miss the Twin Cities. 

NAM 3KM simulated future radar 

NAM 3KM simulated future radar 

The European model has a lightning flash rate simulation. It shows the morning/midday storms on a similar track as the NAM 3KM, though it also shows storms redeveloping along the cold front around 5 p.m. The white color indicates frequent lightning with intense storms. 

European model lightning simulation

European model lightning simulation

"Saturday is looking to have a good shot at seeing strong to severe storms, especially in eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin by the early afternoon to early evening. All hazard types are on the table, but large hail and strong winds are considered the primary threats," says the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. 

So it's pretty clear that most of the models are targeting southern Minnesota and western/southern Wisconsin. That's precisely where the SPC has that level 3 of 5 enhanced risk. 


According to the SPC, supercells that develop before morphing into a line of storms will be "capable of very large hail and damaging gusts," in addition to tornadoes with storms that can maintain discrete storm mode. Once the storms merge into a bowing line segment, tornadoes will be less likely, but still possible. 

We'll certainly have the latest on the storm threat as new information is released by the National Weather Service, along with the newest updates from the computer models. 

Next Up

School dinners lunch

Minnesota to offer free school meals to 90,000 extra students

Gov. Tim Walz, who is facing re-election in November, announced the measure on Monday.


Minneapolis man dies from injuries days after motorcycle pileup

The 69-year-old died after four days at Regions Hospital.

Sebastion Wolbersen-O’Hara

Police: 15-year-old missing from home north of Twin Cities

Authorities say he may be headed to the metro.


Foundation, the building, the win

Identifying Value Plus Catalysts helps your financial strategy and foundation

boating minnesota lake

25-year-old Hopkins man drowns after falling off boat

The man reportedly fell from the boat while fishing with friends.

mayor frey city minneapolis live stream march 14 2022

What's in Mayor Jacob Frey's budget proposal?

Here's a breakdown of what the Minneapolis mayor is focusing on in 2023-24.

Low, Mimi Parker

Low cancels Europe shows due to Mimi Parker's cancer treatment

The Duluth band says the decision follows 'recent changes' in Parker's treatment.

Screen Shot 2022-08-15 at 11.09.39 AM

Wisconsin man admits to 1992 revenge killings 15 years after boyhood tragedy

The 52-year-old man is in custody 30 years after the 1992 double murder.


Image from iOS (3)

Level 3 of 5 severe risk Saturday in Minnesota, Wisconsin

Believe it when you see it. Until then, the Twin Cities has been stuck in a dry pattern.


Tropical-like thunderstorms today, Sunday storms could be severe

Slow-moving thunderstorms could dump heavy rain with frequent lightning Thursday.

Screen Shot 2022-07-28 at 11.45.33 AM

Excessive heat could return to Minnesota next week

Models hinting at triple digits next week.


Twin Cities at risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon

Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but a tornado or two is also possible.


NWS already monitoring Thursday for severe weather in MN

Monday-Wednesday should be fantastic weather in Minnesota.

storm, shelf cloud, severe weather

Large hail possible with strong storms in eastern MN, WI

Watch the forecast update with meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.

Screen Shot 2022-03-04 at 12.10.19 PM

Sven Sundgaard updates dynamic storm that will hit MN

Keep tabs on the latest details because things could still change.

storm, severe

The latest on holiday weekend severe weather chances for MN

The most significant severe threats are Sunday night and again on Monday.