Meteorologists Sven Sundgaard and Novak Weather have been talking about the chance for accumulating snow in parts of Minnesota this coming weekend for a few days now, and with every day that passes the chances of snow aren't disappearing.
As the Duluth office of the National Weather Service notes in its forecast discussion, the weekend storm system "continues to look very good at bringing widespread accumulating snow to the Northland."
How much? More than two inches at this point appears possible, per Duluth forecasters, though predicting totals this far out is difficult and warm soil temps and any mixing with rain would undoubtedly reduce amounts.
The NWS Duluth notes that models don't agree on exact location or amounts, but the ranges are anywhere from zero to six inches.
"So, long story short there is still some uncertainty in location and magnitude, but overall the timing looks pretty good amongst models with the system arriving Saturday afternoon and lingering through early Sunday morning," the forecast discussion says.
Watch Sven Sundgaard discuss the prospect of snow in Minnesota during his Oct. 14 BMTN forecast.
Snow flying as far south as the metro is far less certain, with the NWS Twin Cities noting that precipitation could mix as rain and snow at times Saturday into Sunday, but the predominate precipitation type in the metro will probably be rain. Areas north of Interstate 94 are more likely to get some flakes.
For the fun of it, take a look at what the model simulations are showing. In order, here are the European, American and Canadian models. Please keep in mind that these are almost 100% going to change, possibly a lot, between now and the weekend.