Lots to look over here and meteorologist Sven Sundgaard will be going live later tonight on the Bring Me The News Facebook for an even more updated forecast, but the latest from the models and Novak Weather shows a trend of the heaviest snow potentially falling right over the Twin Cities on Friday.
"Sharp snow gradient across the Twin Cities," says Novak Weather. "I get a funny feeling that portions of the central and especially the southern Twin Cities metro, it's going to be a whopper of a storm for those areas."
The NWS Twin Cities expects the zone of where a foot of snow could fall is "most likely to occur to the south of the Twin Cities along a line from near Mankato up from Red Wing towards Eau Claire."
Here's the latest from the NWS, showing 2-5 inches in the north metro and 5-10 in the south metro; even higher amounts from Mankato to Red Wing and into central Wisconsin. But keep in mind that the NWS made this map before the latest model runs started projecting the heavier snow further north.
As Novak Weather said in his video briefing, if the heaviest band of snow tracks just 30 miles north of where the NWS is forecasting it, then it would mean the Twin Cities gets the brunt of the storm.
And that's where the models that are trending north enter the story. The most recent model updates are from the HRRR, NAM and GFS (American). Here they are:
HRRR: Still a tight gradient over the metro, but some hefty totals for sure.
NAM: This one is extremely aggressive, with 10-12+ in the metro.
GFS (American): This model displays two bands of heavier snow, including one over the metro, though not as intense as the NAM.
What's more is that all of the above models are based on a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio, while the NWS forecast discussion earlier Thursday said the storm could produce a higher ratio of 13 or 14:1. If the ratio is more like 13 or 14:1, then all of the maps above are too light, meaning totals would be even higher. We'll see.
Again, Sven Sundgaard will take over the Bring Me The News Facebook page tonight for the latest, and that should include even more updates to the models.