It could be a difficult afternoon commute in the Twin Cities as snow is expected to be falling heavily, with enough accumulation possible that the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning.
Areas within the winter storm warning can generally expect 4-7 inches of snow, though because the heaviest snow is likely to fall in a narrow band, localized amounts above 7 inches will be possible, according to the weather service.
Areas just to the east or west of where the heaviest snow band is can expect 1-3 inches of snow. Even though the storm is "banging down our door," according to the weather service, the forecast confidence in precisely where the heaviest snow band sets up is still only moderate at best, so a shift in the forecast remains possible.
Here's what Novak Weather is forecasting.
Three counties in far southern Minnesota are in an ice storm warning due to accumulating freezing rain.
"Freezing rain is ongoing in south-central and southeastern Minnesota, and then a wintry mix of precipitation will spread north from southern Minnesota across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this afternoon," explains the weather service. "Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches appear likely for portions of south-central Minnesota, Twin Cities metro, and northwest Wisconsin although there is still uncertainty where the heaviest snowfall will develop."
You can see why the weather service remains uncertain about the track of the heaviest snow band by looking at the newest short-term forecast guidance from the HRRR model, which shows the heaviest snow just west of the metro. Here's a simulation: