How much snow is going to accumulate with Friday's winter storm? Final projections are still being refined, but the current forecast calls for the highest amounts – 10+ inches in some spots – in southwest Minnesota, where a winter storm warning is in effect for Friday.
How much snow for the Twin Cities?
"I'm thinking anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow in the Twin Cities metro, with the lower amounts on the northeast side of the cities and the higher amounts on the southwest side, so Scott and Dakota counties, probably more snow," says Tom Novak of Novak Weather and Bring Me The News.
The National Weather Service says snow totals could vary significantly from west to east across the Twin Cities.
"This could be one of those events with a sizable gradient when it comes to snowfall over the Twin Cities metro, with the western metro possibly seeing 4-6 inches of snow versus the eastern metro struggling to see 1-2.," explains the NWS Twin Cities.
The bullseye, however, remains over southwestern Minnesota. Places like Madison, Marshall and Redwood Falls could see more than 10 inches of snow, with snow falling at a rate of more than an inch per hour during the day Friday.
But here's the kicker. The latest HRRR model is showing the Twin Cities simply getting grazed by the edge of the snow, and if this simulation comes to fruition it would mean about an inch (or less) for the entire metro.
And the HRRR isn't alone. The NAM 3KM solution shows the same very sharp cutoff over the metro.
The models typically get more accurate the closer a storm is to arriving, and meteorologist Sven Sundgaard has been saying all along that snow totals in the metro could be limited by dry air on the east side of the system.
Of course, there is still a full day for things to change a little bit more, so stay tuned for possible updates.