The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for southeastern Minnesota, where forecasters currently have the highest confidence of 6+ inches of snow falling on Friday.
The watch does not include the Twin Cities metro, but does include Rochester and La Crosse, Wisconsin. It should be made clear that the NWS is still uncertain about the storm track because the models have not been very consistent. In fact, as you'll see further down in the story, the latest models have nudged the track a bit north again.
"The storm could still shift its track though, with a subsequent shift in snow band, amounts and precipitation types. Expect some adjustments in the forecast over the next couple days. For now, plan ahead for impacts to travel. Be prepared to delay, alter or even cancel plans if conditions warrant it," says the NWS.
For now, the weather service is predicting the heaviest snow in far southeastern Minnesota, northern Iowa and into Wisconsin.
The storm system is actually still in the Gulf of Alaska, so it has a long way to travel before reaching the region and delivering snow on Friday. And because the heaviest snow is expected to fall in a rather narrow band, any subtle shift in the storm track could lead to huge differences in snow totals.
The latest European model shows the heaviest snow band north of the NWS map and it does bring significant snow into the metro.
The American model is similar to the European model, but not quite as robust with widespread snow totals of 6-10 inches.
Here's the Canadian model, which has a narrow band of snow hammering south-central and southeastern Minnesota.
The NAM model, which was way further south along the Minnesota-Iowa border in yesterday's model updates, is now more in line with the others, bringing a narrow band of very heavy snow from southwestern Minnesota up through the south metro and into central Wisconsin.
So again, this is a very fluid forecast and changes should be anticipated. We'll have the latest from meteorologist Sven Sundgaard and Novak Weather on Wednesday afternoon.