Over the next decade, about 22 million more Americans would end up uninsured under the U.S. Senate's version of an Obamacare repeal, according to a new federal estimate.
That figure comes from the Congressional Budget Office, which on Monday afternoon laid out the cost and insurance coverage implications for what's called the Better Care Reconciliation Act (the House version is called the American Health Care Act, or AHCA, as you might have seen previously).
The bottom line: an estimated 28 million people likely will be uninsured by 2026 if health care laws stay exactly as they are right now. Whereas if the Senate's Better Care Reconciliation Act becomes law, the projected number of uninsured would jump to about 49 million.
Overall it's a jump of about 22 million more people, the CBO says. The House's AHCA was given a similar projection: 23 million more uninsured by 2026.
The Senate's Better Care Reconciliation Act would save a lot of money. The CBO says it would reduce the federal deficit by $321 billion over the next decade. That's about $200 billion more in savings than the House health care overhaul.
There's a good tweet thread from honorary Minnesotan/Washington Post writer Christopher Ingraham breaking it down further:
Will it become law?
There are a few big hurdles still to overcome if this Senate health care bill becomes law.
One, Republicans need enough votes to pass it. The GOP has a majority in the U.S. Senate with 52 seats. Democrats have 46, and there are two Independents that go with the Democrats.
You can safely assume every single Democrat votes against this bill as it stands now. And that's a problem, as the New York Times reported this week there are five Republicans who have publicly said they can't support the current bill.
That's 51 nay votes right there, not even including the Independents or any additional Republicans that have concerns and could vote against it.
The second big hurdle: the House and Senate bills have to match. And right now there are some language differences, as CBS News lays out in this story. President Donald Trump reportedly called the House version "mean" in a private meeting.
So even if theoretically this Senate bill passed as-is, they and the House would have to hammer out some sort of compromise bill to pass once again before it goes to the president to become law.
The Senate is expected to vote on its bill this week.
How do people feel about it?
Americans generally haven't been very supportive of these Affordable Care Act replacement plans.
Last week the Kaiser Family Foundation's poll found 55 percent of people surveyed had a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of the proposed health care overhauls. And 30 percent were somewhat or very in favor.
Compare that that to how people feel about the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) now:
As for Minnesota's senators, Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken? Well both Democrats have been pretty vocally against it.
"Now we know why they wanted to keep it secret," Klobuchar wrote on Facebook last week, in reference to reports of the bill being written behind closed doors. "Like the House bill, this legislation would lead to millions of Americans losing their healthcare coverage or paying more for it, while giving the wealthy a tax break."
Franken's wrote similar things, calling it "an insult to the children, families, and older Americans who would see cuts to Medicaid in order to give a tax break to the wealthiest few people in our country."
He also did this video about it for NowThis.
'More people are going to die' — Sen. Al Franken explains why Trumpcare is so dangerous
Posted by NowThis Politics on Friday, June 23, 2017