4th of July might be a little rainier than you wanted

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Good news! The chance for rain on July 4th has gone down. For the forecast from Tuesday morning, click here.

It's looking more like rain for July 4 in parts of Minnesota.

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities says Tuesday "looks to be much wetter than previously forecast," but it doesn't look like it'll be a complete washout.

A few strong storms are possible in west-central Minnesota late Monday night into Tuesday, with the main threats being hail and strong winds, the weather service's hazardous weather outlook says.

It's likely that an area – including south-central, southwest and west-central Minnesota – will see more storms again on Tuesday, but the threat of anything severe is pretty low, the weather outlooks says.

There's a chance the eastern part of the state could see thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as well, the National Weather Service says.

Here's a look at your Independence Day forecast across the state:

– Twin Cities: High near 79 degrees. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, and then again after 1 p.m.

– Rochester: High near 79. A chance of showers, with thunderstorms possible after 2 p.m.

– Marshall: High near 83, mostly sunny. There's a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night.

– Brainerd: High near 78, mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7 a.m.

– Moorhead: High near 84 and sunny. There's a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 p.m.

– Duluth: High near 67 and partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m., and then a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms at night.

Tuesday is the start of a "mini heat wave" in the Twin Cities, with temperatures in the 90s and higher humidity possible later this week, KSTP reports. There are also more chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday, according to MPR News.

How often does it rain on July 4 in Minnesota?

It does rain on Independence Day in Minnesota, but not all the often, according to NOAA statistics.

Based on weather observations from 1981-2010, the majority of the state has about a 20 percent chance of getting rained on.

For the Twin Cities, it's rained five of the last 16 years, but rainfall amounts ranged from a trace to just over one-tenth of an inch, according to National Weather Service data. Meanwhile in Duluth, seven of the past 16 years have seen rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from a trace to more than a half-inch.

And the National Weather Service in La Crosse did a deeper dive into Independence Day weather for the city of Rochester, finding it's rained there 16 out of the past 21 years. The last time it rained on July 4 in the southeastern Minnesota city was in 2010.

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