A 20-point swing in Wisconsin? How Clinton and Trump look in the polls now

A clearer picture of the impact of the Trump tapes and the Clinton Wikileaks release can now be seen through election polls.
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We're getting a clearer picture of the impact the Trump tapes and the Clinton Wikileaks release have had on voters, with a huge shift in Wisconsin raising eyebrows.

The Marquette Law School in Milwaukee released the findings of a poll it had in the field from Thursday to Sunday.

The day-by-day breakdown reveals huge differences in responses between people polled before and after the Donald Trump tapes story broke.

On Thursday, before the story of Trump talking about sexually assaulting women was reported by the Washington Post, Trump held a slender advantage of 41-40 over Clinton.

On Friday, after the story had spread, Clinton held a 6-point lead. And it only widened over the weekend. Check out this chart:

The phone poll saw a sample of 1,000 people interviewed between Oct 6-9, and it should be noted that results on individual days have a wider margin of error.

There's +/- 5.9 percent margin of error for Thursday-only results, and +/- 7.8 percent margin of errors for Friday, Saturday and Sunday's results.

The overall margin of error over the four days is 3.7 percent.

Nonetheless, law school Director Charles Franklin says the publication of the tapes "appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics."

Clinton is favorite to win Wisconsin on the Nov. 8 election, with polling site FiveThirtyEight never having her chances of winning at below 65.6 percent this election season. Her chances are currently at 89.2 percent, near a record high.

It will be interesting to see the response in Wisconsin after developments over the past few days, in which Trump has been at odds with House Speaker Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin.

What are the post-debate polls saying elsewhere

We're starting to get results from polls taken nationally and across other states in the wake of the weekend's developments that show a similar, albeit not as dramatic, swing to Hillary Clinton.

While Trump clearly appears to be struggling in the wake of the "hot mic" release, Clinton seems to be gaining support. That's in spite of Wikileaks on Friday releasing private emails from her staff discussing her private speeches to Wall St. bankers.

On Tuesday PRRI/The Atlantic released a national poll that said Clinton is the choice for 49 percent of likely voters, with Trump at 38 percent. This is a significant shift from a week ago, when both candidates were locked at 43 percent each.

CNBC reports that as of Tuesday, Clinton holds a 6.5 percent lead over Trump in an average of all polls, a gap which the outlet argues – coming less than 30 says before the election – is almost impossible to make up.

As for the second debate, NBC/Survey Monkey found 44 percent thought Clinton came out of it better, compared to 34 for Trump. That said, more people said they had a better opinion of Trump after the second debate compared to after the first (but also, more people said they had a worse opinion of Trump).

Fewer people said they had a more positive view of Clinton after the second debate compared to the first, and more people said their views had gone negative compared to the first.

Polls from other states

Here are a few poll highlights from other states:

  • A new poll in the typically Red state of Utah now has Clinton and Trump both neck-and-neck at 26 percent each, with independent candidate Evan McMullin narrowly behind them at 22 percent, Deseret News reports.
  • In the swing state of Ohio, Cleveland.com reports Clinton has a 9-point lead over Trump in the wake of Sunday's debate, according to a Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll.
  • In another important swing state, Florida, Clinton has a 3-point lead on Trump according to an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll released on Sunday, while an Opinion Savvy poll shows her with a 3-point lead post-debate as well.
  • In a three-way race between Trump, Clinton and Independent Gary Johnson in North Carolina, Clinton is up 1 point, PBS reports.

To find news, commentary, and local events leading up to the 2016 election, head to Go Vote MN.

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