Skip to main content

A 20-point swing in Wisconsin? How Clinton and Trump look in the polls now

A clearer picture of the impact of the Trump tapes and the Clinton Wikileaks release can now be seen through election polls.
  • Author:
  • Updated:

We're getting a clearer picture of the impact the Trump tapes and the Clinton Wikileaks release have had on voters, with a huge shift in Wisconsin raising eyebrows.

The Marquette Law School in Milwaukee released the findings of a poll it had in the field from Thursday to Sunday.

The day-by-day breakdown reveals huge differences in responses between people polled before and after the Donald Trump tapes story broke.

On Thursday, before the story of Trump talking about sexually assaulting women was reported by the Washington Post, Trump held a slender advantage of 41-40 over Clinton.

On Friday, after the story had spread, Clinton held a 6-point lead. And it only widened over the weekend. Check out this chart:

The phone poll saw a sample of 1,000 people interviewed between Oct 6-9, and it should be noted that results on individual days have a wider margin of error.

There's +/- 5.9 percent margin of error for Thursday-only results, and +/- 7.8 percent margin of errors for Friday, Saturday and Sunday's results.

The overall margin of error over the four days is 3.7 percent.

Nonetheless, law school Director Charles Franklin says the publication of the tapes "appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics."

Clinton is favorite to win Wisconsin on the Nov. 8 election, with polling site FiveThirtyEight never having her chances of winning at below 65.6 percent this election season. Her chances are currently at 89.2 percent, near a record high.

It will be interesting to see the response in Wisconsin after developments over the past few days, in which Trump has been at odds with House Speaker Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin.

What are the post-debate polls saying elsewhere

We're starting to get results from polls taken nationally and across other states in the wake of the weekend's developments that show a similar, albeit not as dramatic, swing to Hillary Clinton.

While Trump clearly appears to be struggling in the wake of the "hot mic" release, Clinton seems to be gaining support. That's in spite of Wikileaks on Friday releasing private emails from her staff discussing her private speeches to Wall St. bankers.

On Tuesday PRRI/The Atlantic released a national poll that said Clinton is the choice for 49 percent of likely voters, with Trump at 38 percent. This is a significant shift from a week ago, when both candidates were locked at 43 percent each.

CNBC reports that as of Tuesday, Clinton holds a 6.5 percent lead over Trump in an average of all polls, a gap which the outlet argues – coming less than 30 says before the election – is almost impossible to make up.

As for the second debate, NBC/Survey Monkey found 44 percent thought Clinton came out of it better, compared to 34 for Trump. That said, more people said they had a better opinion of Trump after the second debate compared to after the first (but also, more people said they had a worse opinion of Trump).

Fewer people said they had a more positive view of Clinton after the second debate compared to the first, and more people said their views had gone negative compared to the first.

Polls from other states

Here are a few poll highlights from other states:

  • A new poll in the typically Red state of Utah now has Clinton and Trump both neck-and-neck at 26 percent each, with independent candidate Evan McMullin narrowly behind them at 22 percent, Deseret News reports.
  • In the swing state of Ohio, reports Clinton has a 9-point lead over Trump in the wake of Sunday's debate, according to a Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll.
  • In another important swing state, Florida, Clinton has a 3-point lead on Trump according to an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll released on Sunday, while an Opinion Savvy poll shows her with a 3-point lead post-debate as well.
  • In a three-way race between Trump, Clinton and Independent Gary Johnson in North Carolina, Clinton is up 1 point, PBS reports.

To find news, commentary, and local events leading up to the 2016 election, head to Go Vote MN.

Next Up

Anthony Edwards

Ant ejected, Wolves blow huge lead and lose to slumping Hawks

The Timberwolves missed another opportunity to get over .500.

Xcel Energy Center

NHL announces make-up dates for Wild postponements

The Wild will play 40 games in the final 77 days of the regular season.

the mayo clinic - edit

Group says Mayo should be 'severely punished' over research puppy's death

The puppy died two days after undergoing a procedure at a Mayo research facility.

FLickr - minneapolis police - Tony Webster - Feb 2020 - crop

Charges: Man kidnapped woman, sexually assaulted her at gunpoint

The suspect faces three separate felony charges.

mn state capitol january 17 2021

St. Cloud 'Boogaloo Boi' who discussed attack on MN Capitol gets 2 years

He was charged with illegally possessing a machine gun.

Chris Smith

Gophers add All-Ivy League D-tackle from Harvard

Chris Smith will be eligible immediately as a graduate transfer.

school bus

High school basketball team returns from game to find bus driver dead

Members of the girls team returned to the bus to find the driver unresponsive.

covid-19 testing site sign

Minnesota AG sues COVID testing site, alleging it sent false results

Sometimes the company didn't send people their results at all, the lawsuit alleges.

optum headquarters chad davis wikimedia commons

UnitedHealth Group says it made $287B last year, $24B of it profit

The corporation's Optum business represented a significant chunk of that total.


Omicron may have already peaked in Minnesota

Reported cases lag what's happening in real time, so the newly reported cases over the next week or so will still be very high.

MnDot snow plow cam I-35 12-10-21

MnDOT reveals 50 snowplow name finalists

Voting is open through Wednesday, Jan. 26.


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump: Reactions to the St. Cloud mall attack

Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump comment on the stabbing attack at a St. Cloud mall.

Don't get worked up over instant polls and who 'won' the debate

Have you seen all those "Who won the debate?" instant polls? Yeah, don't put too much stock into them.

The next day: Hillary Clinton speaks about the results

Even though Donald Trump is headed for the presidency, there are a number of Minnesota races that weren't called Tuesday night.

Let's search the Twitter bios of Clinton and Trump followers

Let's compare the Twitter bios of Clinton and Trump followers – just for fun.

Michele Bachmann suggests Trump tapes came from Hillary Clinton

Former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has had her say on the now notorious "Trump tapes."

Slideshow: What Donald Trump's victory looked like around the world

You can see stark differences in the way newspapers around the world reacted to Trump's win.

People aren't satisfied with Trump or Hillary

Americans weren't very happy with their choices for president back in June ... and they're apparently even less happy with those choices now.

Here's why 3 of Minnesota's U.S. House races are so important this election

Democrats and Republicans see these races as important – here's an explanation.