The National Weather Service has backed off big time on the severe weather threat for the Twin Cities.
Earlier forecasts Wednesday called for "widespread damaging wind" near or just south of the Twin Cities. But that threat has shifted much further south.
Check out this tweet:
"The now much more likely" trend brings a severe line of storms in southeast South Dakota through southwest Minnesota early to mid afternoon, the NWS says, while adding that forecast models "were a little too far north."
Which now puts the bullseye along and south of the Minnesota River.
Corresponding with the new threat is a fresh severe thunderstorm watch for portions of southwest Minnesota.
The original story from Tuesday morning is below.
The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota is in line to get some severe thunderstorms that could bring powerful winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado.
The National Weather Service has the Twin Cities just inside the "enhanced risk" area for severe storms, which are expected to arrive between 7-9 p.m. An updated forecast is expected at 11:30 a.m., which should provide a better understanding of where the line of storms are headed.
The service says that a "widespread damaging wind event" could potentially unfold as a result of the storm system passing from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
According to meteorologist Paul Huttner, it's rare for the weather service is issue a 30% chance of damaging winds, which is what they've done today. Huttner started his blog with a rather haunting line:
"I can probably count the number of days I’ve forecast a derecho on one hand over a 30-year weather career. Today is one of them."
As well as strong wind gusts, the storm could bring large hail and heavy rainfall – potentially 2-4 inches – which could cause localized flash flooding.
The area south of the I-94 corridor is the most likely to get hit with severe weather, with cities including Mankato and Rochester in the firing line.
More details about the direction the storm is headed is expected later on Wednesday, with suggestions right now the most severe part of the system (the red parts of the radar) is expected to pass near or south of Minneapolis.
This post will be updated as more information is made available.