'Jeb!' is coming to Minnesota for a fundraiser


Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush will be in Minnesota next month.

The Pioneer Press obtained an invite from the "Jeb!" campaign, which say the 62-year-old former governor of Florida will hold the reception at the Minneapolis Club.

There's also a specific page on Bush's campaign website that offers some details. It's scheduled for 6 p.m. on Dec. 2, and there are a few funding levels:

  • $500 to be a guest at the evening reception.
  • $1,000 to also get a photo.
  • $2,700 to be named a "co-host," attend the host reception, and get the previous two things.
  • $10,800 to be a "co-chair" and get the same perks.

The event is closed to the press, the site notes.

Jeb Bush and the polls

The narrative recently for the Bush campaign has been, in essence, "Jeb's in trouble."

The Daily Beast says Bush has been plagued with poll numbers "that fell below expectations," and has even fallen out of favor in his home state of Florida.

How's he doing in Minnesota?

A KSTP/Survey USA poll from earlier this month asked Minnesotans about how some of the current Republican candidates would match up against the Demoratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. It found Bush deadlocked with Clinton, getting 44 percent support in a head-to-head with Clinton, who took 43 percent.

SurveyUSA noted that's within the margin of sampling error, deeming it "too close to call."

The poll also found only 9 percent of respondents expected him to be the Republican nominee next year, in fifth place behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Sen. Marco Rubio.

The numbers are interesting, but keep in mind – we're still almost a year off from the elections. And as FiveThirtyEight wrote last week, general election polls more than 12 months out are pretty much useless in actually predicting what's going to happen.

The piece says, in part:

"We just don’t know what the most important issue will be at this time next year. Further, as my colleague Nate Silver has pointed out, a year out, 'we have (almost) no idea what the economy will look like on Election Day.' And the state of the economy is highly correlated with election results. Moreover, voters weigh the most recent economic news most heavily."

For a little historical context: Bush's brother, former President George W. Bush, did not win Minnesota in either the 2000 or 2004 elections.

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