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With grain on the ground, crop prices show no sign of rebounding

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We'll learn from the USDA this week whether farmers set a record with their huge corn and soybean harvests this fall.

But a record would not produce any celebrations among growers.

Many have postponed selling their grain in hopes that low prices will improve.

Doug Schmitz, who runs four southern Minnesota grain elevators, tells Bloomberg about 80 percent of the corn and 70 percent of the soybeans in his area remain unsold. With elevators overflowing, some grain is being stored in piles on the ground.

But those higher commodity prices farmers are waiting for? Well, don't hold your breath.

Bloomberg says markets are in the midst of the most bearish crop outlook ever – and Tuesday's report detailing the oversupply of grain will not help.

Biggest surplus ever?

Farm Futures, like Bloomberg, did its own survey of farmers in advance of the USDA report.

Farm Futures predicts the amount of corn that was stockpiled on U.S. farms last month will be the third most on record, with soybeans breaking their record. Bloomberg anticipates both will break records.

As Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr puts it: "These numbers wouldn't do much to change the bearish mood of the markets."

What would do that, Knorr says, is an increase in demand.

But he says a dropoff in demand from China does not show signs of turning around and the strong dollar is stifling U.S. exports, which were also hurt by river flooding.

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