Left in the cold: Football Outsiders has Vikings least likely team to make playoffs


With all the power rankings, all the opinions, all the assumptions from the "experts", one can easily lose track of reality.

Here's the facts: The Vikings have the best running back in the league, they made the playoffs last year, and added a historically productive receiver to go alongside a top 10 tight end in the league.

Are they in a tough division? Yes. Do they have a subpar quarterback? Yes. Did they get the floor mopped with them once they did make the playoffs? Yes.

That doesn't change the FACT that the Minnesota Vikings were one of 12 teams to make the postseason last year.

Now we know the facts, so it's time to hear another horrendous opinion on top of the ones we've already had to endure this preseason: According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs, lowest in all of football.

They used a statistical formula called DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), that, despite the fact that the word "defense" is in the title, measures every play on offense and defense against a league average of how others would perform on that play, adjusted for the opponent.

It's complicated, multi-layered, and borderline insane.

Football Outsiders specializes in statistics and analysis, so they're constantly looking for the new, cutting edge ways to break down football (like sabermetrics in baseball.)

Stats are great, until they cross the line into not making sense. This is that line.

Closed circuit to Football Outsiders: Keep crunching those numbers outside, this door will be locked if you try to get in.

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