Playing .500 over final 32 games should put the Twins in the playoffs, the computers say

Can the Twins go 16-16 or better over the final 32 games of the season?

If the playoffs started today the Twins would be at Yankee Stadium for a one-game Wild Card playoff against New York. And it's looking more and more like it really could happen. 

According to Five Thirty Eight's daily playoff predictor, the Twins are projected to win the second Wild Card by one game over the Angels, while the Orioles, Rangers, Mariners, Rays and Royals all finish 2-3 games behind Minnesota. 

Fan Graphs says the same, projecting 82-83 wins for the Twins. 

If these machines are accurate, it means the Twins simply have to go 16-16 over their final 32 games to make the playoffs. 

FiveThirtyEight and Fan Graphs make more sense when you see how much easier the Twins' remaining schedule is compared to the six teams chasing them. 


Minnesota can create distance because their next 13 games are against the White Sox, Royals and Rays. In fact, with seven of the 13 against the Royals and three more against the Rays, these are the last games they'll play against any of the teams chasing them for the Wild Card. 

The rest of their games are against the Padres, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and Indians. 

Angels, Rangers, Mariners

If you're looking for a team that needs to win a lot over the next two weeks you've found one in the Angels. Their next eight games are against the A's and Rangers, and then they hit a gauntlet with three in Seattle followed by nine straight at home against the Astros, Rangers and Indians – and then three more in Houston. That's nasty. 

More importantly, there's a really good chance the Angels, Mariners and Rangers beat up on each other over the next few weeks, meaning none of them are all that likely to go on a big winning streak. 


Five straight wins has the Orioles back within striking distance, but how long can they keep it up with 13 upcoming games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Indians?


The wheels are falling off in Kansas City with four straight shutout losses, and five straight losses overall. Since winning nine straight in late July, the Royals have lost 19 of 29 and appear dead. 


Anything is possible, but it'd take a minor miracle for the Rays to win a Wild Card when their last 24 games are against the Twins, Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Orioles.

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