WAS loss + WAS loss + TB loss + DET win + MN win + MN win + TB loss = Playoffs

This might make you feel a little better about Minnesota's playoff potential. Just kidding. It won't.
Author:
Updated:
Original:

If the Redskins beat Carolina tonight the Vikings' playoff chances dip from 2 percent to less than one percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. If the Redskins lose, the Vikings go into Week 16 with a 3 percent shot at the postseason.

Minnesota is fighting for the second wild card with Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Washington. There are no other possibilities.

Three ways the Vikings are dead before Week 17

  1. Vikings lose at Green Bay
  2. Buccaneers win at home against New Orleans
  3. Washington beats Carolina tonight and Chicago on Saturday

The Vikings stay alive for another week with a win over Green Bay and a Tampa Bay loss to New Orleans. If the Redskins beat Carolina tonight the Vikings will need the Redskins to lose at Chicago, too.

If the Redskins lose to Carolina, the Vikings could still cling to life even if the Redskins beat Chicago on Saturday.

How MN's playoff chances increase – the perfect path in Week 16

According to FiveThirtyEight, this is how it works.

10 percent – If the Redskins lose to Carolina and the Vikings beat Green Bay.

17 percent – If the Redskins lose to Carolina and Chicago and the Vikings beat Green Bay.

29 percent – If the Redskins lose to Carolina and Chicago, Tampa Bay loses to New Orleans and the Vikings beat Green Bay.

42 percent – If the Redskins lose to Carolina and Chicago, Tampa Bay loses to New Orleans, Detroit beats Dallas and the Vikings beat Green Bay.

The perfect path - Week 17

If everything above rings true, this is how the percentages could develop.

51 percent – If the Vikings beat Chicago

100 percent – If the Vikings beat Chicago and Tampa Bay loses to at home to Carolina.

If the Redskins win tonight this entire scenario remains the same except Minnesota would need Washington to lose in Weeks 16 and 17.

If Detroit doesn't win at Dallas in Week 16, the Vikings would need this entire scenario to play out exactly the same and have Detroit win or tie against the Packers in Week 17.

No matter what, all of this must happen

  • Vikings must win out (at Green Bay, vs. Chicago)
  • Buccaneers must lose out (at New Orleans, vs. Carolina)
  • Redskins must lose two of last three (vs. Carolina, at Chicago, vs. NYG)
  • Lions must win one of last two (at Dallas, vs. Green Bay)

Next Up

Klobuchar and Trump

Klobuchar reacts to report Trump plotted against his attorney general

The NYT story alleges further tactics to overturn the election.

snow, plow

Snowy Saturday: Here's how much snow is forecast in Minnesota

Snow will reach the metro area by the early afternoon.

Cam Talbot

Wild improve to 4-1 with victory over Dubnyk, Sharks

The 4-1 win gives the Wild four victories in five games to start the season.

Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 9.08.16 PM

Daughter of MN Supreme Court Justice, Allina Health CEO found dead in Iowa

The 21-year-old was found dead in the parking lot of a sorority, according to police.

Screen Shot 2020-09-04 at 8.42.40 PM

Federal charges: MN marijuana lobbyist threatened U.S. representative

"I want you to be as scared as possible," the voicemail allegedly says.

coronavirus, masks, covid-19

Wisconsin Republicans aim to end governor's mask mandate

They've introduced a resolution to remove the governor's emergency powers.

Ted Schweich

Community group hopes to install billboard to get neighbor a kidney

A group called "Team Ted" aims to raise $5,000 to find their friend a kidney donor.

Andrew Palmer

Charges: Coach raped teenage girl on Minnesota basketball team

The 33-year-old head coach has been charged in connection to the alleged crimes.

radio station, microphone

WCCO Radio's program director leaves the company

It's not clear why John Hanson and the station parted ways.

Related

WAS loss + WAS loss + TB loss + DET win + MN win + MN win + TB loss = Playoffs

This might make you feel a little better about Minnesota's playoff potential. Just kidding. It won't.

More likely to win out: Vikings or Packers?

The Week 16 showdown in Green Bay could make or break the Vikings' playoff chances.

More likely to win out: Vikings or Packers?

The Week 16 showdown in Green Bay could make or break the Vikings' playoff chances.

Playoffs?! Vikings just hope they can win a game

One or two more losses could plummet the Vikings near the bottom of the NFC standings.

Playoffs?! Vikings just hope they can win a game

One or two more losses could plummet the Vikings near the bottom of the NFC standings.

5 huge games impacting the Vikings' playoff chances

What happens Sunday will have a direct impact on the Vikings.

5 huge games impacting the Vikings' playoff chances

What happens Sunday will have a direct impact on the Vikings.