Your guide to picking March Madness upsets

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So what's it going to be this year, March Madness? Are you going to tease us with heavy favorites only to bust our brackets with something called George Mason or Florida Gulf Coast galloping all the way to the Elite 8 or Final four, or will you let us drag a yellow highlighter over our correct picks round-after-round, only to slay our champion moments before we are ready to grab our pot of gold?

Whatever the case may be, this year's tournament is no easier to predict than years past.

The favorite? Kentucky.

The Wildcats are undefeated and could become the first team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers to complete a perfect season. FiveThirtyEight Sports' Nate Silver crunched the numbers and determined Kentucky has a 41 percent chance of winning the title.

As NBC Sports puts it, feel "free to start your bracket by writing 'Kentucky' where it says 'National Champion.'"

Need help with your picks? Check out each team's round-by-round chances of victory with the interactive bracket at FiveThirtyEight.

While keeping as many teams alive as possible into the Elite 8 and Final Four is critical, correctly picking just a few second- or- third-round upsets could prove to be a difference-maker in your group challenge. On that note, here are some expert upset selections that we found informational and helpful.

Seth Davis: E. Wash., Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo

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FOX Sports: Texas, Buffalo, UC Irvine

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Celebrity Advice: Barkley, Webber, others

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Bleacher Report has a list of 10 sleepers capable of making a run.

  1. Eastern Washington
  2. Stephen F. Austin
  3. North Carolina State
  4. Wichita State
  5. Texas
  6. Buffalo
  7. Brigham Young
  8. Michigan State

The writers at Sporting News like Valparaiso, Wichita State, Buffalo, Eastern Washington and Stephen F. Austin to kill some giants.

The Perfect Bracket

Bleacher Report has an awesome infographic showing all of the unlikely things that are more likely to happen to you than picking the perfect bracket. Your odds? One in 9.2 quintillion.

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